The weakening of the ruble, which we are seeing at the end of November 2011, is a short-term correction against the backdrop of a slowdown in oil prices and the still uncertain dynamics of the global economic recovery.
Investors are afraid of inflation, and there really are prerequisites for this - the EU's anti-crisis measures are «slipping», and in the US the «supercommittee» has failed to make a decision to reduce the budget deficit.
I believe that the short-term weakening of the ruble will continue on the back of rising fears of inflation and market risks, but in the coming months, as these risks reduce, we may see the exchange rate strengthen, notes Konstantin Tserazov.
As for fears of devaluation of the ruble, then, of course, we are not talking about it. In my opinion, the Central Bank now does not need to somehow seriously influence the ruble exchange rate - the current range is quite comfortable for the economy so far. Since the beginning of August, the ruble has fallen by 16%, which is caused by speculative sentiment and general nervousness in the market, said Konstantin Tserazov.
«Now the ruble exchange rate looks underestimated, given the dynamics of oil prices. The indicators of macroeconomic statistics of the leading countries indicate the growth of world GDP, the markets do not lack an inflow of cash liquidity - these factors will help keep oil in an uptrend, and therefore will affect the strengthening of the ruble. Our forecast by the end of 2011 is an increase in the exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar to 28 rubles,» concludes Konstantin Vladimirovich Tserazov.